Short Swing Confirmation. Now Lets See What Levels To Trade From 5/5/25 ESM5/SPX Levels & Plan
We got confirmation for this short.
Hello traders,
This week has brought both technical challenges and high-potential opportunities.
⚠️ Software Transition: From MotiveWave to DeltaTrader
I want to start by addressing a frustrating but important update. I've had to make the decision to move away from MotiveWave and transition to DeltaTrader after encountering serious performance issues. The latest beta version of MotiveWave proved to be untradable — notably, my stop loss failed to execute during Thursday’s rally, turning what should have been a manageable 7.5-point loss into a 50-point hit. A painful reminder of how critical execution reliability is in trading.
While these setbacks are unfortunate, they’re part of the game. Adaptability is everything — and we move forward.
🔍 This Week’s Swing Trade Setup: High-Conviction Short Opportunity
Let’s shift focus to a higher-quality swing trade setting up beautifully on the charts.
Earlier this week, I shared that I was watching for price to reject the 5715.50 level and close below. That’s exactly what happened, confirming an area of strong supply and giving us a foundation for a short swing trade.
Here’s what I’m now watching:
Key Rejection Zone: 5695 – 5720 (RTH Value Area High to Low)
Low Volume Node (LVN): 5700 – 5705
Target Entry Criteria: I want to see a rally back into this zone with signs of volume exhaustion and buyer absorption on the DOM.
Execution Plan:
Enter on rejection below 5695
Stop Loss above LVN: ideally around 5710
Targets:
Initial: 5500 area
Extended: potentially into the 5400s
Time Horizon: This trade could develop over several days, possibly weeks.
Trade becomes invalid with a 15/30m candle close above 5705, Ideally we want to see a sell off in ETH or a Gap down opening, Buyers stepping in in RTH strong rally with immediate rejection of this level.
📉 Market Context: Volatility, Tariff Risks & CVD Clues
The macro environment continues to be volatile and unpredictable — not helped by constant shifts in tariff policy headlines, especially from the Trump administration. These developments can cause sharp and often irrational market moves, so flexibility is key.
One technical level I’m monitoring closely is the buying tail at 5663. If we fail to close below this level during Sessions 1 and 2 early next week, this swing short becomes invalid, as it would signal aggressive buyer defense.
Notably, today we saw a -13,079 reading on Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) — which might appear bullish at first glance due to price resilience. But given the context and rejection at the swing level, this could actually indicate smart money accumulation by bears positioning for a leg lower.
📌 Final Thoughts
While tech issues threw a wrench in my trading early this week, the setup forming now could offer strong risk-reward. The key, as always, is discipline in execution and patience for confirmation.
Let’s see how the opening sessions develop next week and be ready to act decisively if the criteria line up.
Stay sharp,
FH